It’s a really simple proposition: Should you bet on the Golden State Warriors to make the playoffs?
Of course Golden State will make the playoffs! Kevin Durant and Steph Curry. Those two guys together could get a team into the playoffs. Then you throw in the rest of the ridiculously stacked team and it’s a no-brainer.
But when it comes to Vegas, those “no-brainer” trades don’t pay all that well. In this case, one bettor placed $67,000 — yes, $67K! — on the Warriors to make the 2019 playoffs. With the Warriors now clinching a playoff spot, that $67,000 bet has yielded a whopping windfall of…$670!
That’s right. A 1% return in ~6 months, or a 2% annualized return, on a $67,000 risk.
On Twitter — the battleground of opinion — some peeps suggest this wasn’t such a bad bet. Some argued that a winning bet is a winning bet and that it’s not a big deal. But on a risk-adjusted basis, it most certainly is a big deal.
Don’t Bet on the Warriors
We did some exploring and that same $67,000 could be plunked down in a Marcus by Goldman Sachs online savings account paying 2.25% in interest. The bank also has a no-penalty 13-month CD paying 2.35%. Its 12-month standard CD has a 2.75% payout.
But Marcus by Goldman Sachs isn’t the only one. Synchrony also pays 2.25% for its online savings accounts, while Barclays and Ally pay 2.2%. Discover Bank pays 2.1%, still 10 basis points better than what our bettor received, and for a cherry on top the bank is offering a $200 bonus for deposits of at least $25,000 (and bonuses of $150 on bonuses of at least $15,000).
Not everyone can afford a $25,000 deposit, but our $67,000 bettor certainly could and thus, his return would increase to roughly 2.4%.
And remember people, these are just online SAVINGS accounts. While FDIC insured — something our Vegas bettor does not benefit from — it also does not include our FDIC-insured CD options. Let’s also not forget about Treasury yields, with a 12-month note currently fetching 2.53%. Last but certainly not least, not only can we achieve superior returns than betting on the Warriors to make the playoffs, but we can do so without risking our principal.
It would take a freak slip-up — okay, a dozen slip-ups — for the Warriors to miss the 2019 playoffs. That’s basically a given. But what if they did? Our bettor would be out big time without anything to show for his principal. The reward simply does not outweigh the risk, particularly when we can collect a better reward with far less risk. Heck, the casino could have parked that bet in the bank and still came out ahead even after paying out the bettor’s winnings.
C’mon guys, this isn’t that hard.
(My only disclosure here is that I have a Marcus account).